While local media is obsessed with Claire McCaskill calling out Joe Wilson, the rest of us are analyzing what else Claire tweeted alst night.
- Strong speech. Big olive branch to Republicans. Hope they realize the cost of doing nothing is much higher than resonable measured reform.
That's a very strange tweet if you actually listened to the speech. Obama didn't offer any olive branch. He turned hard left and basically called on the Democrats to unite. He attacked Sarah Palin. He said there won't be a single payer (but that's not in the bill). Let's not take my word for it - let's go to Larry Sabato, respected by all parties:
- If Obama can stoke congressional Democrats' hatred of Republicans, Democrats will be less likely to split and hand the GOP a victory.
- And that's his goal--to focus Democrats in the House and Senate on their common enemy, Republicans.
- In a way we haven't seen since the '08 campaign, Obama made the GOP his devil figure. What does that do? It unites Democrats.
- Obama has recognized that only D members of Congress will produce the health reform he wants (plus maybe Olympia Snowe).
- That was a tough, partisan speech. All pretense of bipartisanship is gone on both sides.
Now where does that leave McCaskill? Her tweet was not a Missouri tweet. It was an Obama tweet. McCaskill is considered on the President's most loyal backers, and when he calls, she responds. Her vicious attack during the 2008 campaign against the McCain/Palin ticket proved she will say anything to help Obama.
The line of attack that will most likely raise the most eyebrows was McCaskill's assertions about what the McCain-Palin ticket would do on the issue of abortion. "This is a ticket that wants to put women in prison for having an abortion after they've been raped," McCaskill said.
That's a pretty amazing statement for a "moderate," but not for someone who plays at being a moderate who can be counted on to do what Obama needs. Claire's strategy is simple. She votes against the Democratic leadership when she is sure the bill won't pass.
1) She voted against the DREAM immigration act, only when it was clear it would fail. She now supports the act.
2) She voted for TARP (with Republican support) and TARP II (with Republican support)
3) She voted for the stimulus, but three Republicans voted for it.
4) She voted against Cash for Clunkers, but many Republicans voted for it
5) She voted against the omnibus, but Kit Bond voted for it.
In each of those situations, her vote was a safe vote. But in Healthcare, it's likely her vote will be the 60th vote. To get this through the Senate, they either have to pull Olympia Snowe onboard, or wait until the Massachusetts Senate seat is filled. If Claire votes for Healthcare as it is currently configured, she will be a 60th vote to pass it, and she will be that vote. She won't be the lone Democratic vote holding out. If the bill is broken into other pieces, she will be free to vote for or against it as long as she is not the 50th vote.
Her leftwing supporters don't understand why she continues to court Republicans in her state. They're correct that folks like me are not going to vote for her in 2012. But that's not what she's playing for. Politicians know that it's not just the votes, but the volunteers that matter. If 10,000 Missourians turn out to volunteer for her 2012 Republican opponent, she will lose that election. If a couple hundred turn out, or if her opponent isn't a strong one, many of those volunteers will peel off and work and vote for third parties, or not show up at all. That's how she won in 2006 - conservatives stayed home.
So in this healthcare debate, McCaskill knows she's treading dangerous ground. She voted for TARP. She voted for the stimulus. If she pushes healthcare over the top, she knows she will face an energized conservative electorate ready to turn her out in 2012.
And when she tweets that Republicans were offered a big olive branch, you know which way she's leaning. She will back Obama until it's a lost cause, then she'll pretend the bill was too divisive. That's "Our Claire."
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