Rasmussen Reports, one of the most accurate polling firms around (best in 2004, pretty good in 2008), has a new poll out of Missouri voters, showing Roy Blunt and Robin Carnahan at a 46-46 tie. This poll is great news for Blunt, who in an earlier Democratic poll in May was behind 9 points. Of course, that was Democratic pollster and hack James Carville who commissioned the May poll, but drawing Carnahan down into a tie is good news after a difficult summer for the Carnahan royal household.
Patrick Tuohey has some excellent analysis of the Rasmussen poll (he has an actual background in looking at them), and says it's not looking good for Carnahan.
Three-fourths of young voters—those aged 18 to 29—would vote for Carnahan. That is the only age demographic she wins by a significant margin. And those are the people least likely to actually show up to vote. They are also the least engaged, 17% of them—the highest of any other age group—have yet to make up their mind. Blunt wins 61% of those aged 30 to 39 and is nine points ahead (49% to 40%) among likely voters aged 65 and up—two demographics that are strong voting blocs.
While Blunt’s 57% favorable rating is five points greater than Carnahan’s, the difference is well within the margin of error and can be said to be insignificant. Interestingly, Blunt is better thought of among self-described liberals (46% favorable) than Carnahan is among self-described conservatives (32% favorable). What is significant, however, is that Carnahan is carrying a 42% unfavorable rating, ten points greater than Blunt’s 33%.
This latest poll would seem to be big news - a 9 point drop in Carnahan's ratings, with high unfavorables and a corresponding weakness in Obama's numbers. It's such a big deal, the Carnahan pet blogger announces it, though only in the context of making fun of a headline. That nine point drop comes from the May poll put out by Democratic pollster James Carville. It's interesting you can read the press release from the May poll at the Post Dispatch, but nothing now. In all fairness, it has been a busy news day, couple of days really, with more Missouri Democrats going to court, Ed Martin getting his day in the sun, and Stouffer announcing his candidacy. Perhaps the PD writers just wanted to balance out the news, and not make it out to be all-Blunt, all the time.
What's good for Blunt is he and conservative bloggers get to start talking about Carnahan's plummeting poll numbers and high unfavorability. Carnahan, who dropped 9 points in 4 months, has to be sweating. She may have to actually start campaigining instead of letting Sean do all the work for her.
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