Nate Silver Can't Figure Out Why Obama's Ratings Dropped

Nate Silver has a head-scratching post over at 538.com trying to analyze why Obama's approval ratings dropped from 65 to 48 last year.

Using complicated stasticial analysis and a broad-based search of stories and headlines, Nate comes to the conclusion there aren't any pure fits to explain the major drops which occurred from the inauguration early March, and then May to Mid-August.

One was the period immediately following his inauguration until about the first week in March; Obama's ratings fell by about 5 points over this interval. The other was a longer period from the end of May through mid-August, during which time Obama's approval declined by 9 points or so. Those two periods collectively account for about 14 points of the roughly 17-point decline that Obama has experienced.

It's as I said a well-researched post, full of potential, but ending with a shoulder shrug of "we don't know, must be the economy.

Unfortunately, I'm not going to be able to give you any one incredibly satisfying answer here. The most basic reason for the decline in Obama's numbers, almost certainly, is that people's expectations for what he ought to have been able to accomplish on the economy have accelerated faster than his ability to do so. But beyond that, things are a little murky.

It's only Murky to Nate because he's wearing ideological blinders filtered through the media.  Ask anyone associated with the Tea Party and they'll tell you the stimulus bill was their first wakeup call.  The orgy of spending to start off total Democratic rule woke a lot of us up, and we started getting educated.

 
Here's one example.  Call is a point of light among thousands. This is the sitemeter for 24thstate in 2008.  I averaged 1300-1400 visitors/month as I wrote two years ago.  And in February I jumped up to 2200 visits because of the tea party on the Arch steps.

Now I'm just one little blog in Missouri.  If you looked at the sitemeters of other tea party affiliated blogs across the country - you'll see the same results.  It wasn't just the fall off of the honeymoon - it was recognition early on that Obama wasn't who he promised, and the beginnings of the resolve to do something about it.

That's clear from my 2008 sitemeter, but let's look at 2009.

 

February looks mighty different in this graph, despite it being the best month of the 12 previous.  Here we see another jump in April, coinciding with the Tax Day Tea Party which brought out over 1,000,000 people nationwide to complain about the spending.  This was the real start of the influence of the Tea Party movement.  The people who came out started talking to their friends and neighbors, sharing their thoughts, and as the media attacked us, the awareness of the Tea Parties grew.  From May-August, you see a a doubling then another doubling of traffic of regular traffic. This wasn't just healthcare. It was Sotomayor followed by Gate followed by Cap and Trade and then followed by Healthcare.

Local tea party groups brought attention to stories that weren't available to the average voter through the mainstream media. The grassroots nature of what we were doing led to a lot of personal conversations, increased blog traffic, and eventually, disapproval of what Obama/Pelosi/Reid were planning to take the country.  As awareness grew, so did disapproval.

As I said, this is just my sitemeter, but it's not hard to plot the fall of Obama's ratings through the events of the Tea Party movements nationwide.  People who normally only pay attention to politics in October/November of an election year were doing their own research and asking their own questions.  As they asked, they learned, and what they learned, the passed on.

Nate's failure to understand this is based entirely on his methods and his sources.  Nate's tied into the media, and the progressive megaphone.  He can't see what's happening because there's a giant blind spot of small blogs like mine that are influential locally and across their state but whose stories don't make it to the mainstream.  That mainstream includes many conservative blogs that react to mainstream stories, instead of building an alternative channel through original investigative research.

A national pundit won't care what I write on an given day, but I'd be willing to bet that the 14 point drop was due in large part to small blogs educating their local constituencies on what was happening, primarily through throwback viral methods like face-to-face communication.

In the events I've attended concerning Tea Parties, there have been very few politicians or political staff that have been involved.  You can count them on one hand.  In contrast, I know dozens of new activists who are involved in politics in a meaningful way for the first time in their lives.  I'm one of those examples.  My political activity (outside of blogging) prior to February 2009 was confined to a single phone session calling Bush supporters in 2004, and then a rally I attended in 1988 in Texas.

Now, I've not only attended over a dozen events, but I'm outspoken - in lines, in meeting, in social circles.  My personal web of influence, counting only connections outside of this blog has expanded to hundreds of people.  That's how movements are created.

The statistics Nate is chasing are lagging indicators.  He's mistaking cause for effect.  The stories didn't drop his ratings.  The stories reinforced what the people had heard before - that we have an unqualified, out-of-touch, far left president whose decisions are hurting the country.  It's an astounding drop because the average American doesn't want their president to fail.  Failing presidents usually presage hard times.  But when the truth is in front of you, it's best to acknowledge it and work to correct it.

So there you go Nate.  If you want an answer to Obama's falling approval ratings, it's an easy one.  The American people woke up, and started paying attention.  And once awake, it's doubtful they go back to sleep for a very long time. 

 

Comments

[robert meyer]

i need a ride to st.louis teaparty ,i can no longer drive due to stroke
i live in lemay
my number is 314-638-5957
i can ambulate but can'driveso give me a call please if you can give me a lift,i will need a day notice however