Politico reports that the Cook Report has moved MO-3 from safe Democrat to Likely Democrat. That's good news for likely candidate Ed Martin, who has put in two strong fundraising quarters and is within striking distance of parity in the cash on hand account. Here's the paragraph:
Rep. Russ Carnahan (D-Mo.), the brother of Missouri Senate candidate Robin Carnahan, is suddenly facing his first tough reelection against attorney Ed Martin, who starts the year with nearly as much campaign cash as the incumbent. The Cook Report now rates the once-safe seat, formerly held by former House Majority Leader Dick Gephardt, in “likely Democratic” territory.
It's terrible news for Carnahan, because the Cook Report isn't doing any on the ground analysis. They're looking at money, and voter registration, and history, and likely national mood. In other words, this is just the generic numbers. I'm not aware of any actual polling that has taken place, but MO-3 is different than it's political makeup might suggest. Carnahan is not well-liked. With he and his sister on the ballot, Democratic voters will be forced to pull the lever for two Carnahans, which is something that even the hardiest of partisans has admitted would be difficult to do.
Progressives who supported Jeff Smith are going to be furious at Russ for his role in sending Smith to jail. Fair or not, Russ is the snitch who went to the FEC to complain after he won. And many are going to see the complaint as a way to prevent a 2010 primary between Russ and the popular state senator.
Carnahan is also a target of the St Louis Tea Party, for reasons running from his 100% voting with ACORN, Pelosi, and Obama, his failure to read bills before voting on them, his fiscal ineptitude, his lies about healthcare, and of course, the townhalls where his SEIU supporters and bankrollers sent out thugs to confront Tea Party activists.
Ed Martin has been doing retail politicking in the district, shaking hands and holding Ask Ed Anything sessions. Russ has been a no-show, popping up on the radar with little announcement and generally failing to do much to show he wants the seat. Like his sister, Russ is running a Rose Garden strategy in a year when meeting voters is a crucial part of victory. Carnahan was never a strong politician, and as the year moves quickly by, his attempts to regain standing.
Expect Russ to try and boost fundraising, but in a year when Democrats are hurting all over, the cash advantage won't be overwhelming. Democrats are pouring money into Ike Skelton's district. Can they do the same for a supposedly safe Russ? The only solution will be for Carnahan to get as nasty as possible, attempting to use the cover of the local media to run a campaign using third parties.
The problem is Russ is a typical incumbent - tone deaf and without charisma or loyalty. With unemployment high, will voters really fall for a campaign of "My opponent is so evil, you better not vote for him?"
We know this. Russ can't run on his accomplishments, his plans, or his character. And he can't count on outside help from his sister or the national Democrats. In the end, he's going to have to face Martin one-on-one, in front of the public. And that's a position no Carnahan enjoys.
I don't want to appear to be distributing common sense without a license, but right about now, the Democrtic Party ought to be all about Ron Paul-ing itself, and letting candidates run with some sense of constitutional temerity, and popular appeal. Who will rise up inside the Dems to oppose Carnahan in the ...(gasp) primaries? (Remember primaries? hell...if you're a City resident...remember opponents!!!!)
And while we're on it...I'd like to see a Senate race evolve in BOTH primaries, elst I will be selling red and blue nose pins outside the polls.
Posted by: CHUCKtheFED | 02/19/2010 at 06:25 PM
We could get rid of Rusty AND his sister in the same election. I can't wait.
Posted by: Martine22 | 02/22/2010 at 07:09 AM