We were really hard on Russ Carnahan in 2009 and 2010. The weakest of the Carnahans, we assumed he was just another empty suit with no fire and no brains, running on an old name in a safe district. And then he surprised us. Carnahan has been running on all four cylinders since it became clear his district was toast. After picking fights with Lacy Clay and the Congressional Black Caucus (going so far as to say F*** You to Lacy on the House Floor), Carnahan switched gears and is working feverishly for a job in January 2013.
But what job? The worst kept secret in Missouri politics is that Russ is running in the 1st District against Lacy. Knowing him as well as we do, we are convinced, as are many city Democrats, that Russ is raising money pretending he will step into the 2nd district, all while planning to run against Lacy in the primary.
Reasons Why Russ Is Not Running In The Second
Carnahan cannot win the 2nd. It's gerrymander is a lot worse for Democrats than the +4 or +5 it's given. Every conservative neighborhood on the West side of the district is snagged up, which means the County portions are weaker vote totals than he is used to. Add to that the many new residents that have had Lacy Clay in the 1st as their congressman for years. Many didn't vote out of frustration. They're chomping at the bit to be represented by someone without a D by their name.
Carnahan doesn't want to face Ann Wagner or Ed Martin. Wagner would have a money advantage over Carnahan and she's not an easy target. Her biggest problem is name ID in a year shaping up to be another anti-incumbent wave. Martin took Carnahan to the wire in his own district, winning Jefferson County and gong 50/50 in St Louis. Without a 2:1 advantage in the minority districts of South St Louis, Carnahan would have lost badly. Add Martin's pugnacious campaign style against Carnahan, and a Tea Party fired up by last year's close watch, and you have the makings of Carnahan not only beaten soundly, but humiliated a second time.
He's not running in the 2nd.
Reasons Russ Is Running In The First
Carnahan is best friends with Lewis Reed, the President of the St Louis Board of Alderman. They bought a boat together and profited from a shady real estate deal together. Reed is an anti-Slay advocate rumored to be running for Mayor. Can you imagine the delight of having you and your best friend be the Congressman and the Mayor from St Louis. Even if it's a long shot, Carnahan would be happier being the 1st District Congressman than the 2nd District (facing strong opposition every year).
The primary is in August, and Carnahan could use his political network to get out the vote. He could split portions of the black vote off with help from Reed, and also tap into black dissatisfaction with Clay. Clay is a fixture, but not a monolith. It could be done, especially if Carnahan had a big cash advantage to pay out "walking around" money from Corporate and Union PACs.
Which brings us to Carnahan's fundraising. Carnahan has had several good fundraising quarters, with assistance from the DCCC and national figures, including Steny Hoyer and Nancy Pelosi. Using left-wing reporters like Dave Catanese from Politico, Carnahan pretends he's running in the second to raise money from national sources and from Corporate PACs. When the time comes, he files in the 1st and enjoys a huge cash advantage over Clay.
It all works out. Except, doing so will anger the Congressional Black Caucus and possibly cause a Civil War among Democrats in St Louis. With Nixon already suffering from low approval ratings in St Louis (he couldn't stop four black Missouri House Democrats from overturning his veto), a second front opened against one of the top black leaders in Missouri will be seen as treachery. It could even affect the governor's race for re-election. Would Carnahan chance it?
What Carnahan Has Wrought
Last year, a rumor was making the rounds that Carnahan was quietly preparing for his defeat at the hands of Ed Martin. This blog was emailed the rumor, and confirmed it with a South City source, that Russ told a group of people that if he lost he would be taken care of by the Obama Administration.
It was widely assumed he'd get some international job working with the United Nations, or assigned to something like the World Bank or an NGO with close ties to the UN.
So what do we read yesterday in the Post-Dispatch? Russ Carnahan Chosen To Attend UN Meeting.
This is a non-paying job, but it coincides with another interesting development. Emanuel Cleaver, the head of the Congressional Black Caucus and a fellow Missouri House member, is telling the world that the CBC is unhappy with Obama. Cleaver goes so far as to say if it were Clinton, they'd be marching on the White House.
With the Congressional Black Caucus already on the verge of rebellion, the last thing Obama can handle is a white Democrat challenging a black incumbent Democrat in a majority/minority district. The simple solution? Give Carnahan what he wants - a way out.
If Russ agrees not to run in the First District, he gets his UN job, a much more secure and way more fun spot where he can continue to suck at the government teat without the hassle of elections. It's doubtful he even runs, as that would require the Obama administration to pay up after he lost, and when they are on their way out. All that points to either a quiet appointment or job offer before the filing deadline, in advance of a primary run at Lacy Clay.
Right now, it's Russ who has the leverage. We did not think he had it in him.